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Happy Birthday @CeCee14 for yesterday. Hope it was a great day. :)
Lemond
15 Apr 16 5:42 AM
@CeCee14
lol. Yeh the daily random pick me up. Like a good coffee. :)
The birthday bonus of 50 points and at the moment in the hunt for third statistically, depends if any one else has a birthday. At the moment I need a good very good week for starters, so doubtful will challenge. I be 50/50 at the moment to scrap into the Top 20.
The statistically analysis so far using simulation
Last weekend I did a spreadsheet to simulate just the random daily points for on average how many points Top 3 etc would be. I did it for all 50 positions. It still a work in progress almost complete to do a full simulation with birthday effect included. Will update those figures I put up. On average be about 4 birthdays a month for 50 people.
If using mathematics I should really use cumulative density function. I'm a bit rusty so using a simulation. Also birthdays make it a bit more complex to use CDF.
Assumption 50 members for 30 days
Average is 765
Be looking at requiring about +75-120 above the average ie. 840 to 885 from memory to be a good chance of 2nd or 3rd. First from about 110 to 200 approx. At the moment your approx (24-7) + 50 = 67 above average. So hovering about 3rd to 6th statistically if rest of the month is "break even".
If there are no other birthdays, statistically you just need gain another 20-40 points on the average and be almost a sure bet in the Top 3. For first you need to beat FARMERTYSON score and not loose any points from competitions viewed in comparision. Even without a birthday FARMERTYSON score is statistically Top 2-3 if he just got "break even" scores for the rest of the month.
Notes:
From a few test simulations done so far.
Range approx +-200 from the average
For one birthday in a group of 50.
Birthday Effect on 50 members
Push up a from approx 30-35th to 20th Approx break even (765)
Push up from approx 10-6th to 3rd Approx +80 to 120
Push up from approx 6-7th to 2nd Approx +100-140
Push up from approx 2/3rd to 1st Approx +120 to 170
For overall leader board position you then start taking away every missed competition viewed, assuming top leader board members won't miss many.