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Argh $#%* 3 weeks in a row less then a couple away from the guessing game.
Also extremely suss. New member joined last week, last seen a week ago, no points. Well the odds something is highly suspicious must be good. Hmm from memory not the first time seen that since joining. Think it might need some terms and conditions for the guessing game competition. If they can do an IP check.
Way to suspicious for a new member not go to the home page and check a competition posted for this month. The only competitions looked at from previous months hmmmm. The competitions posted this month been that average. lol. You would think a "new" member would of been a bit curious a checked out a few competitions from the home page.
Like they had a sole purpose of joining just for the guessing game. Not passing the sniff test. Maybe just extremely lucky.
Maybe to encourage members to be more active must view at least 50% of competitions posted for that week for a valid entry. That might also weed out any duplicate accounts.
Lemond
15 May 16 4:01 AM
Agreed, Lemond. Does look sus. It's well and truly time for @admin @Zedmin to investigate recent 'anomalies', and inform (Forum) members what they've done to rectify/remedy the situation so it's a level playing field again...
toxicgherkin
15 May 16 10:04 AM
@gaseja Well might expect some natural curiosity for a "new" member to explore the site. It could be just a comper who's not interested in the the competitions displayed on this site. Maybe the site gets a good number of new users each week quickly trialing the site.
Spider sense of probability and past mentioned issues of duplicate accounts would warrant a closer look into it.
If it is an existing member with duplicate accounts there should be a variety of ways they could detect it.
Some T&C's like some activity or only one account per household might be in order. Think way it currently stands its tempting for abuse.
@Annaar Well is this weeks case curious enough to do the guessing game at least once and a couple of older competitions. For this weeks case would warrant a closer look. It's not impossible just highly improbably/extremely lucky.
To identify abnormalities statistics usually highlights most issues. From how members use the site etc. The guessing game is highly visible at the top of the page so I can see how new members would be attracted to that and ignore the rest of the site.
One major point is the lack of terms of conditions which can lead to exploitation of the fairness and integrity of a competition.
Overall there is only a brief mention about "Any members found cheating at the end of the month will be disqualified.", for the Leaderboard competition. A very broad term and always wondered what incident that was referring to and what that exactly means.
I assume it was in reference of members using multiple accounts.
@Annaar Compers go through natural droughts. Obviously, If it random draws it depends on how many entries for each competition.
Now lets assume in your case each competition you entered had approximately 1/500 chance of winning. Question is how many competitions would you have to enter to have a good chance of winning one or more times. ie. 50% chance of winning 1 or more times.
Probability of win for a competition = 1/500
Probability of no wins = (1-(1/500))^number_of_comps_entered
Probability of one or more wins = (1 - Probability of no wins)
Given entered 200 competitions
(1- (1-1/500)^200) = 33% chance of winning one or more times.
For 50 % chance to win one or more times is approx 350 competitions. :)
For 75% chance etc is approx 700 competitions.
You can use binomial distribution probability to solve it.
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
This month rough count according to my booksmarks (125+) OMG.
I guess in the last month done hmmmmm 300 at least won three times. Thou one probable had very high probability with a massive "giveaway" of hair products.
So lets assume 300 comps entered. So odds of winning 2 or more times approx 12%
On that note I should practice a lot more skill based ones. :)
Further to the potentially suss issue, I think that maybe the site doesn't record the history accurately? e.g. for instance the winner of this weeks guessing game Juanita T, has last seen April 18 when clicking on her profile. Now if she guessed in this weeks game then wouldn't that be impossible? Or maybe the site doesn't record visits for people who just go in the guessing game and do not view comps which I think is more likely.
@spyglass This weeks winner is a comper I've seen on Facebook. I think they won a couple of competitions this last week on FB. I'm guessing they don't check out the competitions here as they have other sources they use. :)
From looking at a couple of recent new members this month, there seems to be around 500-600 people at least logged in this month and viewed one recent comp etc. About 50 do the leaderboard competition religiously, viewing most of the competitions and doing the daily guessing game.
Looks like roughly a few hundred do the daily guessing game regularly, so a lot don't view competitions or barely use the site. I'm sure the admins would be aware of the exact stats for this.
The question that should be asked, what's the purpose of having the guessing game? I.e. to attract new members and for members to visit sponsored/featured competitions. If this is the purpose maybe some terms and conditions that encourage members to be more active to qualify as valid entries into the guessing game. Eg some sort of minimal activity level. Eg. Visited a sponsored competition recently etc.
To activate the monthly score you must view at least one competition that was posted that month. So for next month the first thing you do is view a new competition posted. On the first day of the month this is roughly around 6-7am. After that the points should show up for the guessing game and random daily points etc.
Some reasons compers may not view competitions here.
1) Time they are posted here usually they have already entered. Especially the Facebook competitions. It's annoying when gleam/multiple entries competitions are posted very late and you miss a lot of bonus entries.
2) Quite a few Australian competition sites some have more features thou most lack a nice social forum. :)
@Annaar @spyglass
1) view a competition posted that month to activate the points system
2) Visit the homepage : http://www.competitions.com.au/ each day to get your random dose of daily points from (1-50) points each day
3) Do daily guessing game for 50 points
4) View the new competitions posted for month by clicking on enter button for each competition for 1 point each before they EXPIRE.
5) Birthday month bonus (50 points)
6) Other bonus worth 50 points for each month
Notes:
First log in. Mine is automatic as saved in the browser. :)
Point 1
Confuses members, thanks to @toxicgherkin pointing this out when I first joined. To avoid this confusion I tend to log in later on the first day of the month after 7:00 AM.
Point 2
I think must visit the homepage for the random daily points to register. See point 1 for first day of the month. I find it best to click on a new competition for the month then refresh the homepage to get the first daily random points for the month.
"Allegedly" there appeared to be an issue with the daily random points before February. Possibly having an influence on the monthly leaderboard. If there was an issue it has most likely been attended to. Can only hope. @ann
Point 3
Guessing game select explanatory, pick a numbers (1-999) each day according to the number of guesses allocated. I don't think 0 is a valid option. Hmm. You can't do a previously selected number in the same week (Sun-Sat) an error message will be displayed and have to reenter the days guesses.
There have be alleged issues with points not allocated for the guessing game @mammapiggy84. I'm not sure what would cause this. I do things in order each day, log in, visit the homepage then do the guessing game. This excludes day 1 routine see point 1.
Point 4.
The "Enter" button is slightly confusing, you don't need to actually enter the competition, just click on that button to view it before it EXPIRES for the point to be allocated.
Occasionally competitions are posted extremely late i.e. on the same day as they expire. I usually do a check before midnight for those. There was one this month that was posted a couple of hours before expiring. Argh it was voting competition, useless if you wanted to enter it.
Handy hint use the advance filtering options
First make sure on page 1 of the competitions as results may be confusing after setting the filters. Set the filter to "Hide entered/not interested" to find any missed competitions and set the order to new or closing competitions. New members may have a lot of competitions not "Entered" from previous months so best to set the order to new.
On that note reminds me never to set the "not interested" option unless I've already "VIEWED" it. Probably best never to set it. I just realized this could cause me to miss points.
Afterwards make sure filters aren't set and the order is set to new competitions to avoid confusion.
Occasionally competition points aren't allocated for a competition. I haven't had this happen for a while. If this happens try toggling the options "saved for later" or "not interested" for each competition. This tends to reset the button back to "Enter" from "Viewed" if the points have NOT been allocated. This process can be tedious if not spotted early.
I also wouldn't recommend clicking on competitions that are displayed as EXPIRED that were posted in the current month. There was a previous issue with subtracting the point for the competition "Viewed"/"Entered".
Point 5.
Just before midnight on the day of your birthday 50 points are awarded. This has a great bonus for your birthday month statistically roughly doubling your odds for winning or making the Top 20 for that month. :)
Point 6.
50 points each for profile pic and completed profile. Once these have been done you will automatically get those points each month.
Probability of winning
Approx 3/50 for top 3
Roughly 50 people doing the leaderboard competition religiously each month.
For about every 4 competitions missed will put you down a position on the leaderboard by the end of the month. You probably can afford to miss about 10-15 competitions and still win. Missing a day of the guessing game makes it unlikely, not impossible thou.
Currently not bad odds for a competition, thou takes a month of routinely logging in each day etc. It only takes only couple of minutes each day ticking off the new competitions etc.
Overall
Recommend do things in order, log in, visit the home page then do the guessing game to avoid any possible issues with point allocation for the leaderboard.
To get a breakdown of the points allocated for the month
Click on the leaderboard tab, your point allocation breakdown is displayed on the right hand side of the screen.
EG
ActionPoints
Competitions Viewed 337
Guessing Game 1500
Profile Pic 50
Completed Profile 50
Daily Visit 784
Hints to avoid missing competition points
Viewing other member profiles who most likely tick off most of the competitions and compare this score to the Competition Viewed. Using filters to find any missed competitions.
Regarding the random daily points I look at how I'm tracking to the average 25.5 to give myself a realistic indication where I'll end up on the leaderboard. Eg for the month of 31 days to make the Top 20 need roughly 790. So tomorrow I need 6 or more points to scrape in, probably 16 to be sure. Some members "hide" down the list and tick of any competitions on the last day. Making Top 20 gives you double the daily guesses for the next month. :)
Regarding previous alleged issues of the daily "random" points I use this static as a rough guide to highlight any issue. Currently position 20 should roughly be 25.5 per day the"break even" of 790 for 31 days. Roughly position 1 130 points, 2 110 points , 3 80 points above average. It varies slightly the top 2 positions up to roughly 200 points for 1st. I wouldn't expect groups of scores for a month's random daily points over 1,000 which was consistent over months before "Febtober".
@Lemond It's Di's birthday this month & she no where near top 5 on the leader board.
By the looks of this month daily scores allocation some received high scores 9/10 ... Others were all over the shop.
I loged on at different times & most days received numbers on the lower end of the scale.
Unless your name/ birthday/ age etc have to do with number allocation.
@Annaar Birthday month doesn't guarantee will win or make the top 20. I just scrapped into the top 20 with the help of the birthday bonus. Two others who had birthdays were in the Top 3.
The odds dramatically increase to making the top 20 from about 40% chance to 70 % chance. Basically pushing your score up from about position 30-35 to 20. For top 3 basically doubles your chances of making it from about 6% to 12% chance from memory. I did a spreadsheet and post about the statistics.
Currently on average expect about 4 or 5 birthdays each month on the leaderboard. i.e (50/12). If it's random one of two of them will be above average totals and with a good chance of making the Top 3. I could update the spreadsheet to give the rough probability of one or more members with birthday's making the top 20 and Top 3 etc.
I can't see many birthdays for May so on average that's good news for Di_D :).
Rough probability of one or more members with a birthday making the top 3 assuming probability of one is approx %12 and 4 birthdays in a month 1- (0.88^4) = 40%. So a good chance will see one with a birthday in the top 3 on average. As not many with birthdays on the leaderboard this month odds at least halve.
Basically if the random daily points is a fair system the distribution of scores fall into a binomial distribution with slight random variation. Notes only looking at the daily random points as this is the major influence who will win. The final leaderboard also is influenced by missing competitions viewed etc.
Last month the Top 20 was significantly lower then would expect. If looked closely would of noticed a group of least five members would of made the top 20 easily if hadn't missed a day of the guessing game etc.
@Annaar Birthday month doesn't guarantee will win or make the top 20. I just scrapped into the top 20 with the help of the birthday bonus. Two others who had birthdays were in the Top 3.
The odds dramatically increase to making the top 20 from about 40% chance to 70 % chance. Basically pushing your score up from about position 30-35 to 20. For top 3 basically doubles your chances of making it from about 6% to 12% chance from memory. I did a spreadsheet and post about the statistics.
Currently on average expect about 4 or 5 birthdays each month on the leaderboard. i.e (50/12). If it's random one of two of them will be above average totals and with a good chance of making the Top 3. I could update the spreadsheet to give the rough probability of one or more members with birthday's making the top 20 and Top 3 etc.
I can't see many birthdays for May so on average that's good news for Di_D :).
Rough probability of one or more members with a birthday making the top 3 assuming probability of one is approx %12 and 4 birthdays in a month 1- (0.88^4) = 40%. So a good chance will see one with a birthday in the top 3 on average. As not many with birthdays on the leaderboard this month odds at least halve.
Basically if the random daily points is a fair system the distribution of scores fall into a binomial distribution with slight random variation. Notes only looking at the daily random points as this is the major influence who will win. The final leaderboard also is influenced by missing competitions viewed etc.
Last month the Top 20 was significantly lower then would expect. If looked closely would of noticed a group of least five members would of made the top 20 easily if hadn't missed a day of the guessing game etc.
@Annaar lol I don't think the log in time effects it anymore. I haven't seen anything statistically that would raise any alarms. I just noticed a few birthdays in the month. Looks like they all have missed a day or more of the guessing game which explains why no birthdays in the Top 20. So you might just hang in there currently 7 points below the average. Due to so many with birthdays missing significant points you might just be ok. :)
You probably need at least 22 to scrap in. hehe. Preferable you want to be over 800 random daily points for the month to be sure. Anything less then 780 you better X those fingers and toes.
The top of the leaderboard is looking fairly close. There will be few X those fingers and toes tomorrow. :)