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@LuckyNicky Another great blog. :)

I like to know the odds. :) Why I steer clear of Pokie machines.

You would be surprised sometimes for high value prizes the odds can be pretty good. I do a "few" Instagram comps where you can see how many valid entries there are. For $1000 can get odds about 1/200-1/500 which isn't bad. I've seen garden hoses with odds worse then that.

I don't see that many comps with odds 1/5000. The only time I've seen those sort of odds are for PC gear. When all the males come out of hiding for a comp. :)

Maybe the @admin could of worked out the odds first before they made the changes to the leader board comp hehe. It's still a touch high at 25 birthday bonus.

For promoters they need a dummies guide how to run a competition. From the legal side whether a permit is required to how to run a successful competition. Most problems arise when they don't put up clear T&C's or occasionally forget their own T&C's. Seen a few Youtube clips of promoters being surprised when a participant attempted to "scams" them. I.e. attempting to cheat the system to win. It's not just compers that have to be aware of the pitfalls.

Would love to know how do you "convert" mates to the "darkside" into comping? :)

Give them a few slice of pizza

@pizzaman111, do you know the filming schedule for the next Thor movie? Would love to see candid happy snaps, if that was permitted... ;)

@LuckyNicky you are so on the money with your article. I totally agree! :)

Just never give up :)

When I lose motivation, I just stop entering comps for a week or two and then get back into it. I also belong to Competition Winners Australia facebook page where I can see people winning fabulous things which keeps me going.

I lose motivation when I see the amount of emails to delete each day. :(

Lots of commotion in Competition Winners Australia over boxes of cookies, 25 words or less and what not. Weird people disputing winner over a box of cookie. Go buy a box of cookies from a scout and do some good.
Stick with the real winners like pizzaman.
Starring in The new Thor movie.

I read over my list of past wins to remind myself it is worth entering.

@Jrob71 The IPad I won in May which I use constantly for entering competitions is a good reminder to keep motivated. :)

Thanks everyone! :) some awesome ways to keep motivated.

Hi, joshua. I think scrolling without selecting, is ok for most of those comps though I have come across one or two that will not progress to next screen unless you make your selection/s. Welcome to the community. We're a friendly mob, and don't bite (generally!). Cheers.

@joshua.weekes Welcome :)
There are lot of competitions out there. I tend to avoid those type of ones as usually result in spam calls and/or emails. Not saying avoid them just be aware of the T&C's for those types of competitions.

I usually answer NO NO NO to the questions. Be careful of the trick ones that reverse the question etc.

Most are friendly in here. I'll vouch for @toxicgherkin hehe.
If you're lucky will get a greeting from the allusive @admin. :)

Good Luck

Hi @joshua.weekes nice to have you onboard! Some of the survey type featured competitions have a skip button at the bottom that will still give you an entry. Hope you have many enjoyable wins. :)

Congratulations! That's a mighty win. Don't worry trying to loose a bit of weight so pizza is off the menu, steak and salad tonight. I won't eat you lol.... Must have been a sizzling 25wol!

Sometimes I just have it and other times I struggle but this one came just like that.
Ow! Fresh out of the box.

If you are able to get autographs I would love one for my daughter from Tom Hiddleston. I was going to write to the fan mail address anyway so all good if you can't.

Tom Hiddleston what about Chris Hemsworth.

@pizzaman111, it's only a matter of time before pizza power is recognised for what it is, and forms a welcome addition to The Avengers family. Serve your justice up spicy...with extra anchovy please! Congratulations!

COWABUNGA DUDE!!!

It's my fourth holiday I won this year.
I have the pizza power!!!!!!

@pizzaman111 Apparently Tom is much preferred

I'll do my best who should I get Tom to make it out to.

@pizzaman111 Oh, thank you! For Sarah Dean.
It would be brilliant as she lost more than the rest of us in the fire with her room being the worst hit.

Oh I'm so sorry to hear about that. :(

Thin base with no anchovies please :)

No worries Brooke. Unlimited Pizzas for you @Brookemaree93

@gemini69
No, Both are run by Cohort Digital which collects your information and passes it on to telemarketing companies, sometimes overseas. Expect quite a few calls. They're heavily advertised so I would imagine they would be difficult to win.

Oh boy do I know that @fourleaf We have copped heaps of calls this week. Thank goodness for caller ID

Hi @gaseja and @SunnyLife, I'm a journalist and am very interested in talking to either of you about your experience in entering Cohort Digital competitions. Could you send me an email at moir.christopher@protonmail.com (this is an encrypted email server, feel free to Google myself or the email server to confirm)? Any information you have on your entries would be beneficial. Thanks in advance!

Thanks so much, Mandi :-) I have sent you a friend request.

I have to ask my wife (Pizza-woman) first before I can send you a friend request.
Looks like The Avengers need Pizzaman
I won the competiton to be an extra in the new Thor Movie.

Pizzaman out.

@pizzaman111, wow that is fantastic. I didn't even get to enter as my kids didn't give me a suitable answer!

The key I find is to organise my bookmarks each month into categories. All competitions are placed in the appropriate folder and labelled with the end dates.

I do batches especially for daily bonus entries for gleam run competitions. As a lot of them are international competitions I use bookmarks that organize them into time zones. That way can do in them small batches. Can do them all consecutive at once in a day. If time it right only have to do them once every day and a half.

I find the biggest issue is checking back for Facebook competitions.

I find my biggest distractions is when I get text messages from Domino's Pizza offering discounts.
I only like notifications for comps. No other notifications not even for PIZZA!!!
Pizzaman out!

Rage on the weekends is great to motivate with music in the background. :)

Thanks @LuckyNicky love the idea of batching different types of competitions so more will to fit into my comping time. I'ts something I'll definitely be taking up. :)

I won a pizza and they only allowed me to have a cheese pizza. When I asked for pepperoni they told me to pay extra.

I've read about some people not receiving prizes too but thankfully I've always received my prizes. I am really nice and thankful when I receive a message, email or tagged so maybe it has something to do with the words they use upon winning.

Had to chase one or two but if you keep it polite and not agressive there generally isn't a problem even then

Yep...don't know why. I've won and never received. Or had to chase them up to no avail. 😯Some I have recieved.

Yep, I've had a big win in Feb this year (a 4K TV) that I never got. They stopped replying to my messages, and disappeared off Facebook. I just accepted it was not going to happen and moved on after a few weeks of chasing it up. Was very disappointing, but I figured well I haven't really lost anything, so no use wasting any more time on it. Only issue I've had though, everything else has arrived.

I don't actually consider it a win until it has arrived. But so far everything has come, eventually. On a few occasions though the prize has turned up twice.

@Jrob71 good point for not spending the winnings or getting too excited until it arrives. :) Lol turned up twice did you thank the promoter? :).

Wish I had a problem but I never won anything lol

@Kezza1956 lol. No you don't want that problem. Just deliver any prizes ASAP with no fuss plz. :)

The longest time I waited for a prize was 8 months and that was for a 100 dollar coles gift card.
The only time a prize never came was a candle.

I won a trip to the USA from Facebook once and it took forever to claim as people left the promotional job and passed it on to someone else to arrange. After a year of asking they finally came to the party and added another person to the trip. (it was originally for 2) They paid for other hotel expenses and threw in another tour in America for us. Even though it took ages...it was well worth it in the end. :)

@Lemond Sometimes I've let them know, but not always, depends on the prize. Its only been little things anyway - DVD, movie tix.

Still saying I've guessed today, please fix it @admin

I'm having the same problem

Maybe it's over a 24 hr period now, I think I guessed about 2.30 pm yesterday, so I'll see if it's changed by then@rianlana

Fingers crossed. I'll also check back later on. Hopefully we'll both be fine.

Nope still the same, @admin!!!!

@bj74 @rianlana

Unusual, it was working alright at midnight.

I think @MammaPigga84 used to have that problem regularly :(.

Try and use another internet browser, check its settings or if possible use another device. eg phone.

Did it register your guesses for today?

Any ideas what might of caused the issue? Like dropping connection at the wrong moment.

Has there been a mass problem with compers today with that? Or any idea roughly what time you logged in. If the issue occurred during a specific time period. It might help @admin to track it down if an reoccurring issue. Any luck they might have the logs for that.

Also probably need to adjust the guessing game bonus points down, as now extra weight on the leader board as previously suggested. It's not causing any bias as everyone gets them. Just if miss a day it may "discourage" being active for the rest of the month. :( Loosing 50 points rules any realistic chance out unless of course it's your birthday. :)

Where are the birthdays hiding out? What are the odds no birthdays showing up on the leader board for 50 or more members for over a month.

@admin Had an issue last week and earlier this week with a competition not registering as viewed. No biggie thou annoying. It reappeared then toggled options then still didn't register the competition point when viewed.

I've always just used my phone so I'm not sure what the problem is, I actually missed 2 weeks last month as I was on holiday so was only able to enter every so often, I have messaged admin on fb but no one ever seems to answer. , hopefully will be fixed by tomorrow, @Lemond

Same thing happened to me.I also logged in to do the guessing game early this morning and it said I have already done it??
I just tried again now at 6.51 but again says my guess was recorded.
So I have only 350 points and should be 400 as I have not missed a day
I contacted admin early this morning and as yet not got a reply

@Winner1 Ouch! Remind me to not to log in early tomorrow. Best start since joining one year and 1 day ago . :)

On the bright side, if the admin can't fix it my odds might of just improved. One sec while I put the running shoes on.

@Winner1 Might need to start an @admin Mexican wave or Conga Line to get their attention. :)

@bj74 Well until this last 6 days I used mobile. Possible dropped out at the wrong moment. I.e. between clicking the sending the guess and them receiving the message. Somewhere in that process. Guess depends how it's all been implemented at the server end.

Probably similar/related to why on the odd occasion don't receive a point for a competition viewed.

I would try a different internet browser as the first option and/or device. Could be like a cookie saves details like have done the guess for the day. God knows what's happened. I've only noticed this issue on the odd occasion for a couple of people.

@bj74 @Winner1 @rianlana

@admin
For at least 3 people to have an issue with not receiving their daily guess/points there might be something related. Any ideas how to avoid this issue or possible cause?

If placing bets when the issue might of occurred. Looks around 5-10am, leaning towards 5-7am period. Thou not 100% missed points during those times.

Seems to be an increase of people who missed the points for the guessing game at the bottom quarter of the leader board table listed today.

Definitely not impressed especially that I have messaged them on fb and they have been on there today too, I don't really care about missing a guess just the huge points I'm missing out on, hopefully tomorrow it will be resolved @Lemond

@bj74 Patience.

In a year I've only seem the @admin message on the forum like twice.
It's "disappointing". Can only hope it's resolved before the end of the month. To fix points in an ad hoc manner for individual members might be an issue. Eg Might risk upsetting the system. In the meanwhile I would carry on as usual.

The leader board/daily points is a nice daily pick me up.

@Admin A brief message stating looking into it would be great. :)

@bj74 No issues for me at 12:11 AM :)

All good today, would be nice to have the 50 bonus points that I've , plus others who have missed out on, oh well , guess I'll have to wait until October now!!!!@Lemond

@bj74 It be nice to know what causes that occassional issue. It could be at either end. Needs a way to automatically check/reset that inconsistency.

Same here, I've only ever entered on my phone or iPad and never have had a problem before@Lemond

Yes all good for me today but I want the extra 50 points I missed out on when I tried to do the guessing game and want my guessing numbers included
No reply from me contacting them too!!!

@Winner1 Least today all ok. You all need to join a Conga line and @admin.

If reoccurs too often it won't be a pretty site!

It might be in the too hard basket to fix quickly.

Assuming all info is stored In database, it might be hard to manually fix once the day has passed. Might have to enter in your guesses for that day manually or insert query then regenerate your leader board scores. Time stamping of guesses, might be an issue thou.

X fingers don't end up wiping everyone else's scores for the month in the process, if not careful.

Also a good case for reducing the guessing game bonus points to a handful. 50 points is a massive penalty now.

Whatever system used for the random daily points it effects the weights of other bonus points to the leader board outcome. It's a complex and interesting competition, will give it that. It highlights the more persistent compers. Lol

There are some clear benefits for the (1-10) random points system putting more emphasis on comps viewed. Disadvantages it's exaggerated/highlighted any weaknesses. It's a fine balancing act to keep it interesting for promotional value and its integrity.

Could of kept it at 50 random daily points and adjusted the points for each competition viewed. I've haven't put those in the model as that opportunity is equal for all. I'm not going to recommend a value for that scenario, until had peaked at that option. Good idea for next stage to model each random points system and how the points transpose across. There's mathematically ways see normal distribution and z scores.

Definitely agree @lemond about the conga line! Contacted support at 6.40 am yesterday morning as soon as it happened AND NO RESPONSE AT ALL have I received!!

@Winner1 6:40AM not a nice start to the day. Unless they are on another timezone probably still recovering from a hangover. lol

The joys of the leader board comp must be giving them a few headaches. I hope they are persistent to get all the bugs out and keep it continuing.

@admin the occasional notification or response would be great or even professional. :)

@bj74 RE : Same here, I've only ever entered on my phone or iPad and never have had a problem before

Same for a year haven't had an issue unless put in a previous guessed number. Just noticed one comper having regular issues with it.

Might be a common link.

I try and keep to a particular order, logging into the home page first then do the guessing game. That way I know its logged in correctly etc.

Other suggestions could be your clock/date on the device is out compared to the site. That might cause some issues. It shouldn't! I've occasional come across sites/gleam comps that occurs, where I've lost a days bonus entries as my clock was just slightly out. Was doing a last minute daily bonus entries.

@admin where is your response to my problem ?
I not only have missed out on the 50 points for the guessing game but am now 2 number guesses for tomorrows draw. !!!!

@Winner1 try emailing :)

@lemond thanks but I did contact them through the contact us and will try it again

HI we will investigate and make any necessary adjustments. Thanks

@bj74 @Winner1 @rianlana There you go. Good Luck. :)
Doh! More competition for the leader board this month. I've only noticed the one birthday so far this month. Must be a few coming up soon. :)

@lemond I will just wait and see!!

Thanks @admin

I would say there will be a few more birthdays near the end of the month and beginning of October ( New Years eve babies, lol, I should know , got 2 myself, lol)@Lemond

@bj74 lol. Happy birthday @Laurenl and @arnoud_thoma for this month. :)

@admin, I'm potentially missing points but totes unsure if I missed a day due to busy daily activity or accessed and didn't get points. Would you be able to check that for me.? I've absolutely no idea though possible I missed a game selection.

@toxicgherkin It wasn't the same day. Hmmm I think you missed it a few of days ago. Was sometime around the Friday to Sunday was wondering what happened, you are always missed. We need some new winners this month for a change. :)

Check your number of guesses entered for the last week.

@admin
Sigh somehow a couple of competitions got away. Damn trying to flick the options to find them. I know one was early on expired. Somethings not quite right with the way it works. Occasional they don't register the points being view thou display as viewed.

Hmm the pepper pig comp just showed briefly as not entered, when I flicked the saved/non interested options then clicked and didn't add. Was about 11:50 PM just before expiring. Had the same of issue the other competition in the first week. Also last month something similar.

Wonder if all related. If switching devices too quickly etc is an issue. Will have to be more carefully ticking off the comps.

@admin @Zedmin, how much of a headsup on competitions for posting do you get? Last week there was a spate of comps with extremely short lifespan, and I missed out on several due to various reasons. If you do get an appreciable amount of time, I would respectfully ask you don't 'bank them' then flood the daily roster with short-dated comps. On that score, I do think you should allow daily points within the month for clicking on expired content, even if it means not actually entering. Thoughts?

@toxicgherkin Hmm for expired comps. It's the "skill" part of the leader board competition. I dare not touch those in case the old bug of loosing points reoccurs.

It's annoying for creative comps and ones with bonus daily entries which are routinely posted up late. I couple of reoccurring comps come to mind.

@toxicgherkin In the past noticed some late comps post are re-post /double posts possible to bring to compers attention etc. You might have a point for the expire points will have to thing on that one.

Any luck working out how you missed a days guessing game points? Think it might of been around Friday to Sunday.

@admin I am still awaiting a reply about looking into this problem.I have contacted you twice about this problem that occurred last Thursday and reimbursing the 50 points that I could not do the guessing game

@Winner1 See a few posts above the admin have posted a response. Be interesting what caused it.

@lemond Thanks I did see that admin will look into it and make any adjustments but nothing has yet been done! I also have had no individual response from contacting them

Hi, I've got guessing game adjustment points now @Winner1

Thanks @admin

@bj74 :). Just noticed. Looks they created a separate field in the database for that. Hopefully hasnt snuck any new bugs in.

Is there also one year membership bonus?

@bj74 yah!! I have just noticed I have got the 50 points adjustment too.
Thanks @admin

Last nights word was POWER ,Good Luck :)

For channel 10 see tenplay for any missed shows :)

thanks JoLee. Lemond Ive been watching but it hasn't come up. Ive seen a few others say its only showing in capital cities

Actually last nights word was RUGGED, Mondays was POWER, sorry about that Jo Lee :)

@maddii_95 I haven't checked the comp or ten play. I would imagine the ten play site would be national. The issues could arise if the code word is shown during add breaks then it might not be displayed. Previously I had to limit my mobile data so ten play would be of last resort.

Brookemaree93 was it shown in the ads for you?

They're on net rewards if you miss them

Who has todays code word I missed it

Thanks bj74!

lol have being doing my in mine slowly during my comping downtime the last couple of months. Found a toaster I didn't know I had. Might of been the cause of bug problem.
Aim to do finish it tonight. Bit of self displine no comping until it's done. 2 months later. :(

Been on a crusade debugging. We've come to a truce they get to stay on my neighbours side. Might of actually won that war. Famous last words.

I enjoy spring cleaning - as long as someone is looking after my kids - spring cleaning with a 2 year old and 4 year old is like brushing your teeth with Oreos lol

@Alittlebitoffun does toothpaste now in Oreo flavour? Where can I get it please? Lol

What was the point. cleaning. Sigh time to shove any mess into a hiding place to discover at Xmas time.

Aah..leave that one to you toxic!

@toxicgherkin I do subscribe and in the middle of mine now.. includes home/puter/photos/bookmarks

bookmarks will take the longest

@toxicgherkin Get a shovel and couple of stakes ,or even steaks and put the dogs to work to dig a hole. Bury the things you don't use often. Label the stake with the year. There you go got a time capsule and done the cleaning at the same time. :)

Or in St Kilda, you just put it on the nature stip and it majically disappears. Just dont put any suitcases out accidently with valuables in it and turn your back.

My point was - brushing your teeth with Oreos and cleaning with kids are two pointless time wasting exercises. While your cleaning one room they are in the one you just finished trashing it. 8 hours later and it looks no different than it did before I started lol

@Alittlebitoffun I cleaned the house when other half was out (an ex) .... 15 minutes after he came home,went into the bathroom then kitchen the place was a mess.... how the hell he did it never understood. ... bathroom to wash hands/ kitchen to get a cuppa.

Dirtier then before I started cleaning.

@Alittlebitoffun lol. Only other solution designate a room to hide the trash and kids in together. Just write off as a lost cause.

Netrewards.com also

has the codes the next day :)

@JoLee How will they help with the Spring cleaning? lol.

Oops,wrong forum

If spring cleaning means digging out the peas, adding manure and planting tomatoes then 'Yes' I do spring cleaning.

@jrob71 - not sure that counts but what are your professional rates?...booking you in now....It's like Australian Survivor in my backyard! Jungle aka weeds

@toxicgherkin Any hidden idols/prizes in that jungle?
Will have to search about for some whipper snipper comps for you. :)

@Lemond If there was a market for dog manure, I might just be rich by now! lol

@toxicgherkin Argh stepped right into that one. Hehe

Maybe find comp for one of those jet hoses instead of the whipper snipper.

@Lemond maybe I'll send the minidrone (yes, finally arrived) out on a backyard reconnaisance mission ... lol

@toxicgherkin Great. Congrats. Just in time for someones birthday. :)

I sent you a comp early for a delux model, if it doesn't cut it. :)
I love the idea of the drone with grappling hook https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCmMzLQR6GY . Think of how much fun you could have with that. hehe

@Lemond Is anyone else thinking 'Barrel of Monkeys'...? ;) Just makes it oh so much harder..I'm up for that! Drones rule. Resistance is futile!

@toxicgherkin I was thinking pooper scooper. That idea in the video needs work. Should use a strong magnet. Could have a magnetic cloth to pick up and drop off. :)

Big congrats. Better late then never. lol. They were just waiting for the right time to give you a pick me up. :)

Ok giving me hints, I need to get back to checking my emails and entering some competitions. The good news finally getting FTB connected. Only took them almost 4 weeks and escalating it to finally arrange it. Option was tomorrow morning or "next" week. X fingers installation guy turns up tomorrow. :)

Well good things come to those who wait.

Congrats!!

winnings are slim, few movie tix here and there.

Entered hotel stay comp and won consolation prize, entry into event. lol Weekend in a hotel with dinners paid would have been lovely

Congratulations :)

Lots of congratulations!

how is it that you win some many things weekly???

@yesyes The post was a bit of a catchup though over a shorter period. Actually it's been a bit of a dry spell. I've been working more (casually), with less time for comping. Swings and roundabouts though it's been great feeling well enough to work, in recent times. Medical condition, and all that, makes things quite miserable...

@yesyes Might be as we keep him happy feeding comps :)

Thanks :)

Does it disable mobile phone coverage? I'll be in for that. I.e. Saves having to asks friends to put phones down. lol.

Hmm would effect my neighbouts WIFI? Be nice if can hack into my neighbours WIFI, while I'm wondering when WONDERCOM/TPG will organise for call to arrange for installation at some point in time. The modem supplied is a painful reminder of the delay.

Almost 4 weeks since registering, waiting for the call/sms/carrier pigeon for an installation date sometime in the distant future, is getting a bit thin. Another "friendly" call to get their butts into gear. It's almost the 48 hours time limit they last stated will be contacted by. Time to escalate it to RED alert!

Meanwhile ... On a comping hiatus to save chewing through mobile data. :( Given me plenty of time to a few things at home and do the Leaderboard modelling.

Yeh good news. Finally SMS from a contracter for internet installation. X fingers now will get an installation date sometime soon. Comping and email checking hiatus should be over soon. :)

@Lemond hope the install goes well :)

@fourleaf Went smooth as. Back in the land of the living and comping and god checking emails. I dare not look. Might just abandon that email account. Thou should be an electricity bill sitting in there. Hopefully it's filed away in a different folder. Could even be missed wins from before mid June.

Last year TPG/Wondercom installed FTB it's not NBN. They have been cherry picking appartments in Melb and other capital cities the last couple of years, before the NBN gets in. Actually get a cheaper and faster product. VDSL 100 Mbps down and 40 Mbs up also phone calls which don't use for $69.99 per month. Not to be confused with ADSL and having flaky copper from my place to the exchange. It's Fibre to the basement and copper in the building.

I was finding, due to comping was was going through my 5GB mobile data too quickly and recharging too often. The daily entry for gleam comps can consume a far bit of data, especially if requirements are viewing videos.

Only issue was a bit worried when they were a bit later then expected. Get a lot of cases of dodgy techs and no shows. I had read up on the whirlpool forum for the TPG threads what to expect. It appeared for 3 weeks had slipped through the system, and was worried it might take at least another 3 weeks, on top of that to book the contracter to turn up. Read some horror stories of continually being pushed to the bottom of the queue for months on end. Mainly NBN installs that happens as shortage of techs, and in the middle of mass rollouts. Impractical to push everyone esle down to queue to make up for a missed appointments or no shows.

They could of stayed for lunch. :) Happy days.

Any good competitions? I haven't looked at them for 2 months. Was self punishment/disciple to motivate to connect the internet and do a spring clean. Gave me time to brush on my spreadsheet skills with the leader board modelling. lol.

The ones that loved the 50 bonus points for the new system can blame you. lol Your comment for looking forward to seeing the probabilities inspired me to update the model etc. hehe. I wasn't expecting to discover the new system had an obvious bias. Seems logical why in hindsight. Probably wouldn't of thought about it. OK also blame admin for changing the points system which exaggerated the bias to extremes. I better duck.

Got the new odds for the changed 25 birthday points. How many birthdays you reckon we will get this month? Helps towards generating the appropriate probabilities. Could use a random one.

Now expanded the modelling to do it monthly probabilities; for the birthday and non birthday groups according to random birthday distributions over a year. When 0 birthdays become apparent midway through last month thought should upgrade the modelling to cater for those kind of scenerios. :)

Nothing like an angry fist hitting the dinner table to do the same thing. I won't be entering this comp.

Thank you, I won one today :-)

@tuppinski Congratulations, goods odds on this one and well if you don't want to use the wifi bit the pepper grinder works and looks quite nice. Not a bad Xmas idea either :)

:)

Cons no transfers. Pros. free breakfast.

Pros you win a free trip. Cons no spending money included...haha!

Pros you win a free trip. Cons you get mugged overseas

Was lucky enough to win one 3 years ago, only con was no spending money but we were very happy with our $12,000 trip, we didn't actually need much $ as everything except for food was paid for.

Pros get to go without the kids as they are generally only valid for non peak periods.

The following is a output of a simulation for the current leader board for (1-10) random daily points with various birthday bonus and how they effect expect outcomes.

@admin appologise if the image isn't too clear. Working on that.

Imagine lot of questions to make sense of it all.

Simulation based on 1200 randomly generated monthly totals using the daily random points (1-10) for up to 100 participants.
For birthdays I randomly allocate each participant a birthday and obtain a randomly generated birthday distribution.

For the simulation I've selected one random birthday distribution as shown in the table i.e. 2,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,6,10 for the sum of birthdays in a month. The order of the number of birthdays for each doesn't correspond to the order of months as randomly generated.

For the birthday distribution applied various birthday bonus points using the same set of random monthly totals for 50 participants.

The results are sorted initially for the scenario 300 birthday bonus points, according to the number of birthdays in a month then and expected payout order. I.e. 300 birthday points would guarantee being at the top of the leaderboard. The progessively did this for the various birthday bonus points of: 300, 50, 40, 35, 30, 25, 20, 15, 10, 5, 0.

Where 0 bonus points is a totally random outcome.

@Lemond I agree with @toxicgherkin if changes are to be implemented then they should start 1 Jan (midnight).

I don't have a problem with birthday bonuses as they stand now. I presume there is a something in place that monitors people changing details like birthdays in order to get a few bonuses a year.

@Anna2077
Yes you hope there are checks and blances changing birthday dates. The sacastic humour must of been lost. I.e. was a dig at the greatly bias system due to reducing the daily points and not balancing the birthday bonus correspondingly. I'm sure if I changed mine it wouldn't go unnoticed by some members. :)

@admin

@Anna2077 So you're supporting to continue a greatly biased system, favouring some groups of members over others? And which side of the coin to you think you think you fall on? The "fool" or "unjust"? That would be the first question, if making a decision based on self interest. Being pre-emptive, falling on the finely balanced edge scenario is improbable!

@toxicgherkin
Removing the birthday and ASAP may sound like the Grinch who stole Xmas. lol With 50 birthday bonus the only members expecting a Merry Xmas would be probably be those with a birthday in December. If more then about 4 birthdays, most likely someone will miss out. Do you feel lucky this year. :) There is the case of multiple winners, and/or the "OPHRA" scenario. For that scenario, likely someone would have to "organise" New Year celebrations in advance.

Just of Easter please can have a birthday bonus of 125 or more and while at it excluded those members that won this year for that month. Just incase also exclude any new members with birthdays in that month that have joined since then. Of course while keeping the random daily points at (1-10). (Sarcasm included)

If read to the bottom there is some GOOD news for reducing the birthday bonus.

My suggestion for the current system of (1-10) random daily points, is to scrap the Birthday Bonus of 50 daily points. This could POSSIBLY be replaced it with an appropriate value between 0 and 15 bonus points. 0 being guaranteed to be unbiased and the simple solution. To recommend an appropriate bonus would require further analysis and modifications to the simulation, to model various random birthday distributions, according to the number of expected **"active" members.

Saying that, going way on a limb, given the likely hood of say 10 being the current maximum of birthdays in any month for approximately 50 **"active" members for the next 12 months, 10-15 bonus points MAY have insignificant impact on the overall outcomes. 15 birthday bonus points would be maximum limit I would suggest. This is loosly based on the limited simulations done for different birthday distributions as shown in the one example for the expected payout and difference from the average payout tables. That value MIGHT work until the maximum number of birthdays exceeds approximately (8-10) in a month for **"active" members. The ONE simulated birthday distribution displayed, hints that MAY be a possible ASSUMPTION.

Goes against what my year 11 maths teacher drummed into students "Never ASSUME because ...."

Probably will only work under strict ranges of variables, according to the number of participants/maximum expected number of birthdays for a month in a rolling 12 month period. Once exceeded, it may require adjustment to maintain balance. A couple of ways could do that either manually once in a while or possibly some sort of weighted system to calculate the adjusted birthday bonus correction, by a few points. This would have to be calculated just before the end of the month.
So depending if below or above the average number of birthdays in a rolling 12 month period, the birthday bonus would be adjusted according each month. Would be a complex system for members to accept, having to wait until the end of the month for their adjusted Birthday Bonus. If the number of **"active" members is fairly static I would expect it to remain a constant value and no need to correct. It's sudden unexpected increases might cause some issues.

**Active members:
Are those who complete the daily requirements to maintain a probably chance for the leader board competition. i.e. The current 50 points for the daily guessing game, if you miss a day of points in most scenarios wouldn't have a genuine chance. (Unless it's your birthday month and 50 bonus points)

Roughly looking at the monthly leader board over time, there appears to be around 40-50 members, on average for each month, that meet that requirement.

Notes:
Might be a case to reduce the daily guessing game bonus points to encourage members to remain active if miss a day or two. With the current (1-10) daily points based on the average expected values for the Top 3 for 30 days, there's about 10-15 points to play with before starts having significant impact on your chances for the Top 3. So if allow up to two days before "disqualification", 5 points or under is a suggestion for the guessing game. If combine that with likely missed the (1-10) random daily points as well, average 5.5 per day, maybe only about 2 points per day, for the daily guessing game. i.e. for each complete day missed penalises you on average 7.5 points lost. Miss 3 days or more, I wouldn't like your chances, of course unless it's birthday bonus that gets you over the line. Lol

For example the top monthly score for August was 215, however they were heavily penalised by missing a couple of days. This score was roughly expecting for the top score (207 for 31 days) + 5 due to the correction on the first of August. Generally once someone misses a days' points, whether through personal or technical problems with the points they most likely to dropoff in activity as a result.

Now couple of major impacts could be:
1) Increases the **"active" member count.
2) Consequently decreases chances for the leader board for **"active" members.
3) The likely hood of multiple winners may increase slightly.

Now for point 3.
Some possible scenarios should be aware with the current system. It's only a small chance, thou significant enough. If can read the table of expected payout for 1200 months of data (100 years) would notice that the average total payout per year varies with various birthday bonus values.

Dividing the values values by 100 gives expected payout per year also for members the average payout received. The variation for total payout per year is about $100 between 0 birthday bonus points and 50 bonus points. This is due to the higher the birthday bonus, the less likely for multiple winners. (i.e. The smaller group of birthdays has more significance then larger group of non birthdays group, due to the bias as it's increased.

The chance for multiple winners slightly increases the more participants, with the tighter scoring system of (1-10) random daily points. $100 may be insignificant depending on the budget. The modelling done shows the probability for multiple winners.

For 0 birthday bonus points: first about 6% , second 12% and third 17%. Overall on average of 11% (about once every 9 months) expected multiple winners for each top 3 prizes.

For 50 bonus points, for the birthday distribution simulated as shown in the table:
Overall it's approximately 5% (once ever 18 months) for a top 3 prize. Breakdown 4%, 6%, 7% for first to third.

Being cryptic, whatever the birthday bonus it could result in an "OPHRA" moment and Banking Royal commission. Hopefully haven't given too many ideas to members.

Do have some possible solutions to avoid those scenarios, thou would be a small chance of them "naturally" occurring.

GOOD NEWS
So the GOOD news for having 0 birthday bonus points compared to 50, from a members perspective, the likely hood of winning a prize increases, due to the increase chance of multiple winners. :)

The chances for those groups disadvantage dramatically improves, of course at the expense of those groups that are advantaged. Only fair!

The periods between not winning MAY be also be reduced with the odds more evenly spread out, instead of all in one basket. Would have to check the expected outcomes/maths to validate that claim. Odds with 0 bonus for a totally random outcome are about once every 16 months for a win for 50 **"active" members.

@admin
The "Compromise" which MAY have validity is 15 or less birthday bonus points. Comes with all the above conditions. WARNING may contain nuts. Consume at your risk. :)

It's a balancing system, if change one variable, like the daily random points you have to recalculate appropriate points values for other variables to maintain a reasonable "fair" system while still achieving the aim to encourage members to be active viewing the competitions posted. The daily points were reduced to (1-10) without balancing the 50 Birthday Bonus points accordingly. This has highlighted and exaggerated their bias, due to birthday distributions naturally being uneven.

Will post up more details explanation of the tables etc provided over the coming week.

From The Wrath of Khan, "Logic clearly dictates that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few"... "Or the one"

@Lemond Serious Chill!!

Did you get your bonus points this year and now you don't want others to get theirs?

Since I've joined I've not won guessing game nor came anywhere within top 3. Have you?

You don't speak for majority of the compers, majority haven't commented.

If @admin, want's to remove them then 1st of the yea, otherwise they stay until majority have commented

@Anna2077 Yeh I got my "bonus" points. It was before the June change when they had the comparative value of a couple of pesos. Yeh the leaderboard loves me, NOT!. Well today it does. :) Also no cigars for the guessing game , Fortuna teased me 3 out of 4 weeks couple months back, one away each time and all around.

Won an IPAD PRO the following week. There's Karma for you. OK entering around 250 competitions in those couple weeks might of helped as well :)

It's not about whether I received my bonus points or self interest.
It's about fair competition! Everyone having an equal chance over time.

Warning! I umpire cricket. It's not professional or recommended I show any bias. They are like a pack of hounds when they smell any weakness. lol

It's about the unforseen effect from decreasing the daily points from (1-50) to (1-10) in June. The birthday bonus of 50 points should of been reduced accordingly at least, to maintain the same bias. It's that what is at the heart of the problem.

Any previous bias, due to uneven and naturally occuring birthday distributions, has now been exaggerated to have noticable effects on the outcomes. Favoring those groups of members with less birthdays in the month, then the average, over a 12 month period, then other groups.

From the tables provided, sorry not clear atm, aim to fix up tomorrow evening,
50 bonus points has almost the same bias as the extreme case of 300 bonus points. It's quite noticable in both cases.

For 50 bonus points:
The most disadvantage groups, the ones with higher number of birthdays it's expected payout/probability is approximately halved, OUCH!
The advantaged, smaller groups, approximately increased by 50%. Happy days for thoses cases.

The bias between groups has some mininal mixing between 25-30 bonus points range. The bias is still quite noticable at those values. Around 15 points and below its starting to look more random as it approaches the total random case of 0 points.

So could concentrate simulations from around the 10-17 point range for closer inspection for acceptable weight for the birthday bonus, and under what conditions that assumption would be valid for.

Do have some ideas why at that range it starts appearing more random and possibly an acceptable bonus value. Will explain later after having a good think about it. Got to be careful I'm not attempting to justify an arbitary value to be valid.

As stated previously, and hope the point is clear: The greater the weight of the birthday bonus towards the leaderboard outcome, the greater the bias!

I think it's quite resonable to except the leaderboard a dominately random competition to be fair for all. Then you got the dilemma it's not a "professional" look running a greatly biased competition. Forgiven as it was probably, unintentional. Those bugs keeps @admin on their toes. hehe

@admin For cases of equality, a plebiscite wouldn't be appropriate. That's where leadership needs to be taken. The mob are always free to share opinions. Hopefully grounded on informed ones verses emotive.

Decisions for what is fair or unjust we trust @admin will do their best.

@Anna2077 It's nothing personal and wouldn't expect on facevalue to accept the claim or @admin, it "may" be a bias system. It's complicated to explain the mathematics.

I need some "simple" analagies to cut through the heavy maths lecture. lol

Uneven birthday distributions caused by many natural things eg Xmas and New Year "celebrations" those birthdays should be cropping up around the end of the month or early next month. lol Also just random sample of compers. :)

Attempting by using modelling and pushing the bonus to it's extremities eg from 300 points to 0 demonstrate how it is currently greatly biased.

PS I'm probably better off with the bonus being so biased. That's assuming by next year there isn't a dramatic increase of birthdays for that month and the greatly baised system still going.

@Lemond Sorry, but agree with you

1. Let's just say you were born on the 28th. that means you don't get points till that day.
2. All month you get rather low daily points
3. Others get7-10, hence they are ahead of you on leader board.

With me so far??

Now your 50 bonus 'happy birthday' points takes you to the top and if you are lucky you at least come in 3rd

Why should you miss out on your birthday month?

I've been trying to win an ipad for years and still no luck. One day might just splurge, then again it;s a luxury.. will keep on trying to win.

@Anna2077

@toxicgherkin

25 points - Rewarded on your birthday (just before mid-night AEST).
If noticed the update.

Read your question @Anna2077 had a good thought about it. Can see the conceptual flaws overlooking. First start on the maths and analogy later when done my cleaning and after Internet connected later today.

Revolves around the number 1 rule of probability. The sum of all the probabilities each outcome EQUALS 1.

The probability distribution graph for the accumulative monthly score follows an approximate normal distribution. ( I.e bell graph).
Where the area under the graph is the probability I.e total area represents 1.

First draw a line through the middle to the Base line. ( that's the average point) eg for 30 days and (1-10) daily points ( 1+10)/2*30 = 165.

If marked each outcome on the base line ie the accumulated monthly score (ie. 30-300) . Ok for the leaderboard monthly example need a big floor to draw on. Now due to the shape of the distribution ie it's represents how the probabilities change. If draw a line from the a point on the graph to the base the longer the line represents the bigger the probability. Eg score 30 very short line be a dot, score 165 the longest, and other extreme 300 another dot line. I.e the probability isn't the same for all monthly scores. It DECREASES THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE AVERAGE.

Now that point also helps me understand how the bias is working. I.e the further the away the number of birthdays in a month is away from the average it bias increases/decreases. Now there is a relationship between two statements. Ok need to clean. Edit later and should of started with the analogy involving pies and pyramid schemes. Ie when you start guaranteing someone to win it starts taking on the shape of a pyramid scheme. Missing the whole picture everyone expecting the same possible outcome verses focussing on one person. Ie guaranteed one or a group at the expense of others. (Bias)

@Lemond you are overthinking it...

stop using maths and start thinking logically

@Anna2077 lol yeh putting up my thought processes. It's handy. Good reference. By "debating" it helps me understand whats happening.

Ok simple demonstration. And hard to get away with no maths to explain how trying to manipulate winners by guaranteing effects other participant. Outcomes.

Similar to a Pyramid Schemes and how they work. The winners are the ones at the top of the pyramid. I.e The few benefiting from the ones below and that continues down the ladder to the bottom feeders with the left over scraps in the scheme/competition. If you advantage one or more groups it's at the expense of others.

For 50 bonus points the few are the smaller birthday groups that would of got up to a 50% bonus and each level in the Pyramid towards the average gets incrementallly less of a bonus. On the other side of the coin the further away from the average the incrementally disadvantaged until to get to the maximum amount of birthdays.

Now that that logic helps work out the challenge what is a reasonable birthday bonus. Picking an arbitary value can have undesired effects from major bias to physcological ones. Those physocological ones are also important to attact and keep members interested. Remember it's all about the promoter.

Would need to recheck the odds for birthdays and non birthdays. If the non birthdays odds are too low (i.e.) length of time to expect a win, it may having of the effect of discouraging members for the majority of the year, and only get motivated when they expect a realistic chance. 50 points could of had that effect. Apart from August expection of 0 birthdays. Once there are 4 to 5 birthdays in a month for *"active" members non birthdays had a slim chance. Maybe if a few slip up and miss a day. Stephen Bradbury moment. lol Lesson there hang in there you just never know. Just don't expect that to happen too often. :)

Yeh got FTB installed. :) And the leaderboard loves me two days in a row. Now there's a first. Hopefully not too many birthday's or need of few of them to slip over.

Now for the new 25 points will check the spreadsheet model see what it can tell me about the birthday/non birthday odds. Anyone got any ideas how many birthdays to expect this month?

For the tables I put up the scenario was maximum of 10 birthdays. That random distribution could of been more of an expection. Why would have to run that 1000's of times to make realiable claims about a birthday bonus amount.

My gut feeling it might work up to about 6 birthdays maximum in a month in a rolling 12 month period. I think I now how to work it out from what I said from above. I.e. analyse the variation of expected payout for each birthday number group, according to the average number of birthdays in a month. The sounds a lot like the coefficent of variation. Used to analyse trends etc. I was eyeballing that trend for the obvious bias. Once started dropping it below 25 birthday bonus, tehnically hard to "eyeball" and make conculsions with becomes les reliable. The assumptions for the variables become more critical to make any reliable claims, without using mathematics to anaylse trends. That I haven't implement YET.

Give me time. And migrate it all in a database to automate the process for random simulation of birthday distributions. :)
Thou I got 5,000 emails for spring cleaning. Might be some wins in there. Probably too late to claim.

Would help if had what the expected maximum of birthdays would likely be for the next 12 months. We had 6 in june. Also the number of likely participants which gives the average number of birthdays for a month.

Also got to allow from some wriggle room for growth. Why working from 10 birthdays might be a good idea. Most likely wouldn't need to adjust the bonus for quite a while until that limit got passed. Disadvantage bonus is set a touch lower. Advantage non birthdays keep interested with better odds. Disadvantage birthday months whinge why didnt I win on my birthday month. lol.

Then you got the ones that never win, or the ones that win consecutively for a few months in a row. Now that case last year, thou never officially stated at the time, some "bugs" have been detected during earlier this year and that first of last month which got corrected. So hopefully that bug has been exterminated. :)

I wish I could say the same for my cockroach war. :( Damn saw a couple this morning. Good news thou they are only bunkered down in one area.

Now if anyone got any suggestions for those bugs?

Done the spring clean over a month, that should help. Been persistent over 2-3 months, slowly have reclaimed fridge, bathroom, laundray area, bedroom, walls, ceiling, microwave, couch, tv unit, stove and oven. Just the kitchen in one corner near the oven. I thought I had reclaimed the kitchen. There's nothing to eat in the cubboards I removed everything to lure them out.

@Lemond back to my example... you only get daily scores under 5 for 20 days on your birthday month. It will never get you into the top 3, so that you get something for your birthday,

Your birthday falls on the 28th as an example and suddenly you are in the top 3. You get a small gift.

Without that birthday 50 points you'd still be trailing somewhere and people who don't have a birthday have been lucky that month and received gifts

it's September. You've received your gift . Don't take it from others. As @toxicgherkin told @admin that 1st January is fair.

@Anna2077 Ok 50 bonus points 5 perday is just below the average. 30*5=150. For 30 days expected top score is 200+_ 7 So good chance might be above the top non birthday. Be close those competitions view difference would most likely make the difference in that case.

@Anna2077 What gift? And you can't compare 50 birthday bonus points for the old system of 50 daily points compared to 50 birthday bonus points for the (1-10) system. It doesn't translate due to mathematics and distribution of scores. I.e old system average for 30 days would of been 30*(1+50)/ 2 compared to 30*(1+10)/2.

And it's been never about self interest. About the system been fair for all. If change the daily points to whatever eg (1-20) ... (1-100) or (1-1000) etc etc. If wanted to have the birthday bonus to have a comparative effect it needs to recalculated. I.e. would have to check the percentage rank influence of 50 points in the previous system. Then look at expected scores at that percentage rank in the current system and the difference from the top position would roughtly relate to the new birthday bonus. This would have same comparative effect as previously. The advantage scores are now closer with (1-10) over the old system. So can understand why might of changed to make competitions view more important.

Could of also left it at (1-50) and work out what appropriate points for each competition viewed would of had the same effect. Complicated. It's a fine balancing system when changing the random daily points systems. Where need to know your maths or do some simulations to calculated expected month score distributions.
It's not incremental relationship in a straight line it follow the Bell graph because it's a random distribution. :)

@Anna2077 Hmm fair for ALL was scraping the 50 points are at least reducing the greatly bias system ASAP. The only way it was fair was under strick conditions. One equal birthday distribution which is improbable. There is more cases didn't initially think about. Equal groups either side of the average number of birthdays. Still unlikely. The more the bonus is reduced towards 0 it squashes the pyramid scheme until certain of no bias and works for all scenerios. From 2 compers to billions. Like lotto. 25 points might work well under certain strick conditions. It may have weakness depending on number of participants, max birthdays. Depends on if expect a stable growth or low growth of particpants.

@Anna2077 Your logic for continue a greatly bias and unfair system, which didn't even work well for a low number of participants is flawed.

If had the approach for umpiring cricket, if I make a error of judgement or one of the laws of cricket then recommending, I should continue that making that mistake at least for that game, or until a number of months later. That way all teams get "fair" treatment. Well at least "consistent". hehe OMG

I could just imagine the umpires report. Make for some good reading. It would be unprofessional. When I use that word that's being dipolmatic. "Unprofessional" on a scale 1-10 is 10.

@Anna2077 Using a simple example.

Say 36 particpants, 36 prizes awarded each year. For simplicity no mulitple winners.

Might be a recommendation there to control payouts blowing out in some "scenarios" most natural and not a huge issue depending on if the how tight the budget is.
Could potientially be "unnatural ones". Best not go too much into that scenario. I call that the OPHRA scenario/Royal Banking Commission.

ok if even birthdays each month with maximum bonus they all get on average 1 prize a year and over 3 years on average 1 of each prize.

However if say a couple of months had 0 birthdays and couple of months had 6 birthdays those with 3 get on AVERAGE get 1, and those in the groups of 6 birthdays on AVERAGE get 1 prize every 2 years. Or on avergae one of each prize EVERY 6 years. You see the problem there? The smaller groups below/on the average number of birthdays are better off on average, then those with greater, then the average number of birthdays. If was smaller then 3 birthdays then they would do better then the groups of 3.

Why 50 points, which almost the same as unliminated bonus points bias was a problem.

@Lemond Sadly you are missing the 1st of Jan factor

It's even sadder that the argument has to only be your way....

you've never complained about it till now, have you?

So settle down, chill out and let people get at least a small chance of winning something.

For instance I hardly ever win comps, but still trying... have never guessed the lucky number, Never came within top 3

Many compers are like me... so do you believe that we should continue like that?

If you are going to throw bias around then take this:

1. A lot of competitions that ask you for age, do not let anyone over certain age win.
2. A lot of companies go by the name and only some names win
3. 25 wol doesn't always depend on how good your answer is, but if you are male of female.

the list goes on.... you cannot always have it your way when suddenly you decided that something is not the way you want it to be.

Have you noticed that no one is replying to your posts? Apart from me?

@Anna2077 lol. It's not is argument one way. I can't see a logical or professional reason to continue any unfair situation. Call intregity, professionalism. If only could give everyone a prize a year. Sadly have no control if more then 36 people of average enter the leader board competition. hehe

It's about EVERYONE having EQUAL chance to win over time. Verses some with greater at the cost of others with less. Thats a fair and reasonable point. Simple as it gets. Called competition.

If make a mistake which i.e. umpiring would acknowledge and try and correct, it and hopefully doesn't happen again. Instead of repeating it on purpose for "fairness".

The admin has acknowleged the unintentional great bias and made some attempt to correct it, with the limited information at hand. Possibly picked an arbitary value. It's a more reasonable value for the (1-10) points.

Long as aware of the flaws and what circumstances it works for and when it starts to fail. They need vist to a maths professor to get pick their brains. Get the appropriate math formulas out or simulation to see if has integrity under the anticipated conditions. EG number of participants, max birthdays, etc etc.

If 50 points was intentional for (1-10) they most likely weren't aware of the flow on effect when the system was changed. It's a finely balancing act when start changing the variables available. Eg For points for competitions viewed, points for the guessing game, birthday bonus points.

For those decisions thou tempting to dive in and change them. Need first decide why want to change and desired effect. I.e. promote use of site. The lure a reasonable fair chance to win for all. Then model excepted outcomes or calculate them and see if maintains integrity within the expected limits.

@Lemond So you are saying you'll continue talking about the unfairness until 50 birthday bonus points are gone?

You've never complained till now... so ask yourself why now and not before?

@Anna2077 It's gone the 50 bonus points. lol. See the updated conditions. It's now set to 25 since yesterday.

Thought I had posted that. Was tired last night and PC crash and busy this morning.

@Anna2077 Because it wasn't apparent the bias. It was a lot less obvious with the (1-50) random daily points. You can't compare then two systems on facevalue for the birthday bonus. Major % difference influence of the 50 birthday bonus points. One is about 20% the other about 80%.

It was only after the change in June then midmonth thought calculate the probabilities for birthday/non to see what the if was any realistic chance for non birthdays. With 6 birthdays in a month for non birthdays group lol was 500-1000's of months for a likely win. 0.5% or less. At 0 points its once every 17 months. 6%

Then during August when 0 birthdays started looking likely. I realised the probabilities I posted where only valid for once scenario. So I expanded to calculate for every month according to a random birthday distribution. Was after a week or so the BIAS issue clicked. Probably looking at expected outcomes and thinking what was the cause? Why some participants seem way better off then others SO much from the modelling. What was relationship causing the BIAS. It was noticably not within random variation.

Could work it out. lol. God would have to generate random monthly scores based on (1-50) then paste that into the model. I've had to separate the data generation from the model due to the PC complaining.
Would take me a 1/2 hour. Could do that for all possible daily random points. I should dive into the mathematics. I do know roughly or could google what formulas to use. Too much brain power to calculate and chance to make mistakes.

@admin Thankyou for looking into the Birthday Bonus issue and adjusting it to a more appropriate value to reflect the changes made in June (1-10) random daily points. I hope it hasn't caused too many headaches and has been interesting reading. :)

Become a bit of pet project since January on and off. Aim has always been to be constructive and suggest improvements and/or highlight possible flaws, if possible appearing to behave in as an "unfair" system. Eg the possibile first day bug issue and the early birds v the rest. :) .

Hmmm where do I start for more possible tweaks. Apart from the birthday bonus it's probably a touch high. Will know when get motivated to look the model. The good news should be distracted catching up entering competitions for a while. :)

Hope the leader board has long and posperous life. Maybe even pick up a win a two. On average expect to be about every 18 months depending on number of *"active" members of course. Hopefully get lucky in the next 12 months. Still waiting on my welcoming gift.

@Lemond guess you being selfish and complaining cost many people myself included ever getting to the top 3. Well done!!!

@Lemond You have way to much time on your hands.. time to find another hobby

@Anna2077

1) Not getting paid to look into leader board issues.
@admin what does the reward for spotting bugs pay? Based on random value greater or equal to $0? hehe
2) Had a couple months off comping so had plenty of spare time.
3) Previously had focused attention on 1st of the month bug that alledgely popping up.

lmao. Seriousl! You must of missed the "Early Bird's" V the Rest alleged issue early this year.

I usually log in very early. It's realated to best strategy for the guessing game. It only help chances by getting in early. Would be nice if I actually guessed right. That responisbile has been now passed on to random.org :)

In January I started looking into the leader board. It's been an interesting project. hehe. There appeared to be some abnormilites from when I joined from September to December. One being never could get into the top 20. The other never ended higher up then @toxicgherkin for months on end. Not even for a day. Ok got to equal score one day. Then sent tumbling down the ladder. hehe. Thou most likely could explained with random variability and bad luck. Thou looking at your own scores out of context doesn't have any validity. You got to look at the bigger picture of a larger group of scores.

Then for 3 consecutive months at had same group of winners at the top. Extremely improbable, thou possible. Probably better odds for Lotto then that happening. Also the distribution of monthly scores didn't "smell" right. They seemed consistently higher and skewed above the average the same amount for a few months. Possibily due to, like last month, on the first day the wrong daily points was issued. Then it was corrected if recalled. I was suspicious from January something wasn't right just causing the skewed results above average consistently.

Not till February the 1st, I noticed what was the likely cause. Early on the day low scores in range only (1-10) till 8:29 am, then range (40-50) till about 5pm. Then looked random for the rest of the day. It was more by chance spotted it by logging in early. I was suspicious before that something not right thou. Hightly improbable to see a pattern like that. Can't be explain away within random variation.

I actually recorded the approx login time for most members, from first competition viewed log for the whole day. OMG . After the first day it's impractical and hard to spot if an was a daily or reoccuring issue. May of been an reoccuring issue each month on the first day unnoticed for a while. So possible explanation why seem like patterns for groups of members doing consisently better then others and skewed above average. I.e. the early birds v's the later ones. At least if there was an issue @admin was then aware of it or probably keeping an eye on it.

The skew above average can be explained with ie. more members log in later in the day then the early birds. Like having extra birthday bonus for most members each month. So unintentional due to human habit of times when logged in. Some members may of consistently been fortunate.

Coincidently Feb 2nd the system went down for maintanance and from March to May the monthly scores for the first time appeared ok. The skewed results above the average had disappearred. No offical word on that until the first of last month. When the bug reappeared with the daily scores being incorrect ranged and fixed the following day. @admin if I highlighted that issue any chance of a bug spotting rewarded. lol Hopefully that bug has finally been put to bed. :)


Some background
An old job was for implementing, basically solely, a financial modelling system for public and industry funds. I'm the IT side with some maths. Didn't design the model. Thou implementing/living and breathing it over numerous years got understand it, and the maths behind it. If you change the importance/weight of one variable, it has consquences on the overall output. I.e Was the Rating of the Funds.

Early on recall the boss had rush off to a Fund Manager to show off the reports for whatever reason. Realising that something wasn't right on the way out. Became of game of anticipate the Boss's requirements.

The rating system he designed wasn't showing expected results for the performance for those funds. First reaction it must of been implemented wrongly. I'm way to through with testing and modelling. It was that his design was flawed. Wasn't a major mistake, thou it's impact had major consequences on the overall Rating system. One variable was weighed wrongly or having the opposite intended effect on the model.

Designed the system to be flexible enough to cater of any request for mincing the stats for adhoc reports. In those days PC's were slow. It took 24 hours to process all the data and produce all the statstics for reports. Once a month new monthly data would arrive on cassette (the dark ages of dailup hell). Would come in over the weekend, on the Sat run stats over the new data checking for any obvious errors to correct. Where variation/standard deviation comes in handy. It highlights the obvious errors. EG fund price instead of $1.23 is $123. Data errors would distort the whole modelling for that Fund Category. Then once happy found most of the errors would rerun the model on the Sunday night and go home. So by Monday morning the Boss could happily play with all the new stats for new adhoc reports. Another IT person did most of the report designs. They would be published in a monthly booklet and a yearly book.

The modelling delt with dealing with large number of fund performance data then had to group into appropriate categories and compare performances and their variation etc. Then use that in a weighted model to rate each fund. EG combine performance compare to peers, risk/variation , also compare to industry indexes like ASX etc etc. Then combine performance measure with finely balanced weights, to highlight more important statisics for the Fund Rating.

Perfermances of funds categories follow roughtly normal distributions. You can analyse things like are they adding value for their service/fees according to benchmarks like Bank Bills, ASX etc.

So bit of intuititon when a random distribution isn't behaving as expected. All things being equal everyone should have the same chance to win over a period of time.

@Anna2077 lol yeh comping. Cricket season coming up. It's been winter hibination.

@Anna2077 Gee "selfish". That's harsh. Won't take it personally. Will have to do way better then that to offend me. Remember I umpire cricket. lol. All complements.

Hmm complaining. I wouldn't put it that way. Wonder if the suffragette's were thought of just annoying complainers, for a justice and equal rights to vote. Thou it did take them many attempts and petitions for politicians to eventually see the light.

At least politicians didn't put it to plebiscite.

@Anna2077 I can only infer from your emotive remark that you perceive you have being disadvantaged by the change, or possibly you've got a birthday coming up very soon. Or depending on which side of the coin you perceive would of landed on the favourable or disadvantaged from reducing the bias to a lessor amount.


Approached as objectively as possilbe. Let the simulation do the talking. Thou in your defence you don't the spreedsheet modelling in front of you of examine, nor admin yet. :)

If I thought I was being advantaged over anyone else due to the changes, I would of said something about it. Probably as my month had 3 or maybe 4 birthdays might of better off under the 50 bonus points. Good chance better off then the 6 in June group.

When I noticed the possbile "Early bird" issue on February 1st, I could of tried and taken advantage of it. I was aware that even with testing for it, and if was reoccuring. I could be taking advantage with that knowledge. That's why I posted that publically. At least if I perceived I may be advantaged, everyone else had the same opportunity to use the information according. I.e. delay logging in early. Confirmed last month might of been issue early on the first day. At least if was an issue they are aware an ontop of it. :)

The modelling just followed exactly how the leader board works. I'm fairly confident implemented correctly. Maybe some doubts regarding what happens with payouts for multiple winners. Thou that doesn't have an major impact on statements made regarding the obvious bias with too high of a bonus.

Thou suggested removing the birthday bonus to 0 or suspending it until an appropriate value could be decided or calculated. Was trying to be prudent in not suggesting an inappropriate value. Trying and see what value mantains the integrity of the leader board competition. Had to be careful own personal preferences for a value and justify a birthday bonus value to fit a case. Only limited to a few sample birthday distributions. Not where not enough data to suggest appropriate range of values.
Also don't have the stats the the admin would have on likely expected growth of members being active. Might be a touch of growth in the last year.

I did suggest some of further analysis at the points where limited data was from facevalue looking promising.

The modelling of outcomes doesn't have any feelings, just 3,600,000 random numbers to generate the expected monthly scores for 100 years. Currently it is however limitated to fully analyse what an appropriate birthday bonus ranges would be. Can only eyeball what ranges might be further analyses to focus initial. Obvious bias can be seen when the outcomes are clearly grouped within birthday number groups and then compare that 0 random totally random case. Just in case they happened to be in the same order. It would of been inappropriate to make an outright claim for a birthday bonus value without anything concrete to base it on. Need extend the modelling and add extra statistical analysis.

Unconstructive "self interest" thoughts. Sounds like someone needs a win badly. Or a short break from comping. Does wonders. Helped me for April. :)

Wasn't until April had a couple of wins. After almost continual comping from last September. Took a month break think in Feb.

I know can get frustrating. When you least expect it a win seems to pop up. :)

Good luck.

@Lemond you are still carrying on!!

Long winded posts that constantly say same thing are on same level as very long web pages = no one reads them in full.

You might think that you did the right thing, but you didn't. Everyone who had a birthday in the first 8 months received 50 points, for the last 4 months it will be 25.

Would it have ruined your life if the new system came into play from 1st Jan?

Now you don't know who had or didn't have a birthday in August. As you don't go through every compers account. If you do then you have way too much time on your hands. You can only see around 35 people, not everyone... not everyone play's the guessing game either.

The thing that bugs me is that you spoke for everyone, no one elected you speaker.

@Anna2077

The @admin took the appropriate steps, to the best of thier knowledge, and with the information available at the time, to rectify the unintentional biased leaderboard system changes. Possible the new value a bit arbitrary.

Guess a failure to educate you why a change was necessary ASAP was lost in your sentential and emotively based argument.

Where do you begin about why an ASAP 'product recall' would be appropriate for a demonstrated faulty product, and taken off the self, to replaced and repaired.

It's not something you vote on. It's not a religious argument or about what colour to paint the walls. It's based on complex maths. If anyone could of provided the mathematically proofs/calculations it would of been appreciated. Thou mathematics can be used to help calculate the probabilities it's a complex weighted system of numerous variables. A lot easier using random simulation and modelling. One of my fortes. :)

Using simulation based on numerous random samples is the Law of Large numbers.

See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers.

I don't need to know every account. Just the rough amount of ones that do all of the daily requirements, to have a genuine chance for the leader board competition. I.e. Missed a couple of days of the guessing game etc. It helps me to make reasonable assumptions for the modelling. Ie. the number of participants/active members. Thou allowed for up to 100 participants in the modelling. Spreadsheet has it limitations, so does my PC.

Possibly the weight for the guessing game could be reduced as suggested previously, if they felt it might encourage members to keep active. Has some merit that suggestion. Then it a lot harder estimating the figure directly. Thou the excepted mean score for 30 days would give me a good indication as well and what position it translate to.

For the last two months because it was so biased birthdays were likely to appear on the leader board, especially early in the month. There were a couple you may of not noticed. I noticed as it had an impact for the probabilities I posted up in June, especially if were no birthdays. I was hoping there would be bunch to demonstrate the effect on the likely outcomes. Didn't expect the scenario for none to appear at the top was likely. Least by them all slipping up it was a equal chance for all others.

Regarding the 50 birthday points, the first 6 months system of (1-50) random daily points CAN'T be compared with the last 2 months of (1-10). Like comparing a paper plane to the space shuttle.

Most likely, the 25 birthday bonus for the (1-10) daily points has more value/weight then the 50 BD points for the (1-50) system. Would have to check the model with (1-50) points per day or calculate it.

The simple logic you provided, translates as: if it was (1-50) before and now (1-10) it 'should' be changed to 10 points ie (50/5) to give the same relative value. Maybe it's 10points, unlikely thou. It doesn't work as simply as that. See normal distributions and calculating expected values. Educated guess be around the 20-25 points.

Well it was for the @admin to decided the appropriate action. It's thier reputation and integrity on the line in that case.

Also other people eg @spyglass and others had commented previously of the their concerns at the time. Without the modelling at the time the information wasn't available. Before making any statement or claims, I had done the research and modelling, and backed up with the mathematical methods to highlight the obvious bias. It's not something I worked on over night, put it that way.

The leader board is an interesting/complex probability question and has a lot of similarities how it functions with a previous fund ranking modelling. Pulling things apart to see how they work can be educational and a 'fun' hobby. Putting them back together ... takes patience. Did I mention that umpire cricket? Lol

Maybe if the @admin had announced the upcoming changes before June could of looked into the side effects. It appears was an unintentional mistake. If want to point fingers or any grievances your energy is focused at the wrong person.

I accept your apology in advance. :)

Knowing the rough probabilities for competitions you can make decisions how much effect is it worth putting into it or what your realistic chances are.

@fourleaf made some great comments regarding whether consciously/unconsciously they focused on types of competitions more likely to have a chance according to their forte.
Is the effort worth the reward. Eg Spend a hour for a WOL for steak knives with a 1,000 entries or an hour for a WOL for a car with a hundred entries etc.

Initially was examining the probabilities of the new system for winning in a birthday month verses non birthdays as were comments unhappy with the change. The odds had changed dramatically. Impact basically meant don't bother unless less then 4 birthdays ie 6 in July. August with 0 birthdays on the top of the leaderboard made be upgrade the basic modelling to calculate them for every month according to a randomly simulate birthday distributions. This was based on the assumption of 50 genuine contenders. With flexibility up to 100.

@Anna2077 And Yes. Will probably at a later date will 'carry on' with suggestions to help improve the integrity of the leaderboard competition once all modelling/analysis and reports completed. Definitely if there any 'obvious' issues with it. It's had teething issues.

May even publish the model on a site so you play around with variables at some point in time. At the moment not user friendly. Getting there. :)
Be an interesting project refreshing/learning skills.

That way @admin can play with suggestions in a model before making changes.

I would like it to continue where everyone has an EQUAL chance over time, while still able to achieve the aims for the competition..

Thank you for your appreciation. :)

@Anna2077 lol no wonder so cranky 7 daily points for 3 days. Hmm Karma. Early days it can only improve. :)

Wouldn't also be your birthday month or before January by any coincidence?

Good luck

@Anna2077 Have you have a profile name change Annaar?
For many reasons I recognized it could be you. :)

Good Luck when you come back

Thank you.

Even though you had the winning number, this weeks winner would of entered it before you, as there's only 1 winner a week, keep trying though, good luck

Hi, it's the first person to guess it.

@bj74 So what would be your strategy to maximise your chances for the guessing game?

@Lemond have no idea, I've won it once but it all comes down to luck

@bj74 lol not giving away your secrets. :). Hint was in your reply to shuching. The early bird gets the worm, unless it's the first day of the month and the leader board bugs come out to bite! Thou the new system of 10 daily points chances are your better off till its corrected. Lol
X fingers killed that bug for good.

The question was hinting how to improve your chances to help avoid shuching scenario?

Imagine first day xxx number of people guessing repeated each day. Wonder on average how many days it take for someone to guess correctly. Given the average amount of participants each week be mathematical way to estimate it. Most times it's guessed correctly. Then you could compare a random approach verses picking favourite numbers. Probably a random approach is slightly better. There might be numbers which aren't guessed as often, if chosen from favourite numbers. For lotto stats prove like birthday dates etc used often. So if win and use those more likely be split a multiple ways. This reduces the favourable outcome. Applicable definitely for big draws of Lotto and wishing to buy every combination etc. lol

Luck always helps, thou depending on the competition some strategies help improve your chances.

Good blog especially regarding date of birth.

If Optus is reading, if the alledged Optus sales call regarding changing plans or whatever they wanted, when they asked for DOB early in the conversation, that's' the reason I cut them off abruptly! Even if was genuine call, they asked way to early that question. Wasn't sure what they wanted etc. If want to change plans , I may contact you. Then will ask straight up your personal details to confirm identity. Also should check first I'm not passing on my details to an oversea call centre, with unknown privacy laws.
They could of explained options for plans without asking for personal details.

@admin Hmmm how does the blog advice sit with the "Birthday" leaderboard competition? Is it ok long as the birthday given the same actual month? Or OK to pick any date long as stick to one date? And may I select August 31 if not already taken. Thou not many birthdays from memory in my month. I'll have think about it. Damn points are frozen at the South Pole this month.

I wonder if the stats for Dec 31 or Jan 1 are abnormally high!

@Lemond The biggest problem is that all telco's have their call centers off shore.. usually Malaysia

@LuckyNicky

The joys of Facebook and comping. Got my first direct scam tonight. Need to add how to spot an obvious fake FB profile. Google any profile pics/images is a good start and cross reference any details you can find. :)

Why also good to keep a record of what competitions you have entered. Eg using bookmarks etc so can cross reference your own records for the "competition". Be highly suspicious to win when you didn't even enter. :)

Great advice Lemond!

@Lemond knowing my luck as i'm near the top of the leaderboard all the August birthdays will appear during the last week of the month :(

@spyglass lol. Yeh the birth stats in Aust are fairly even thou I think August to October slightly higher. Ie New Year + 39.7 weeks .

I noticed a couple of birthdays earlier in the month looked liked they had missed least one day. :).

I've updated the model for the leaderboard with dense rank for each month, including leap years, randomise/manual birthday months and sorted, inputs for birthday bonus, number of participants up to 100 and number of prizes. I had to split the data generation from the rest due to old PC so modelling different daily bonus would have to manually copy the data set in. Then stats comparing birthday verses non birthdays wins even for each month. Handy as sort the birthdays and can easily compare how different number of birthdays in a month compare. It's evolved lol.

50 bonus points from memory is about 75-80% bonus. So if 1 birthday most likely end on top 3 time out of four years and the other year 2 or 3rd. The mean for 31 days is 171 (31*5.5) . The top score around 206 +or -10. So a monthly score for 31 days around 156 is approx score needed to beat the top non birthday score. So for a non birthday you need around 210+ once you get a few birthdays, you might scrap in with bit lower if got a few extra points from comps viewed. You'll would need every single point.

For this month looking like there might not be any birthday members that have done all the guessing game. You might be in luck.

I think someone ask last month the odds for 5 birthdays at the top.
We'll probabily 3/4 a success and can work the rest out using combination probabily to get the result etc. for 0, 1, 2 .. 5 etc etc

Now the major issue apart from the overzealous birthday bonus of 50 points means the probabilities for each birthday month are virtually 1/(number of birthdays) for each of the 3 prizes. Eg if 6 birthdays just below 3/6 chance of a prize. Note if only a couple they sharing first and second most times.

The more birthday members in that month the more you have the share the three prizes with on average. So if only one or a couple in that month it's a cash cow compared to other months. Ie it's a baised system due to having the birthday bonus so high. Non birthdays usually wouldn't get a look in unless 0 or only a couple birthdays and then most likely be only 2nd or 3rd.

I stats I previously put up only looked at an average number of birthdays eg 5. Improbable would ever be evenly distributed over a year. The result is some members are greatly biased towards compared to others. It's can be multiple times put it that way.

Next few days will see what birthday bonus might be a 'fair' least remove most of the bais. Most likely under 20. Easiest solution scrape it thou preference for a slight birthday bonus.

Question is why have it at all. Promotional exercise to lure in 'new' members Definitely discourages been active for most of the year except birthday month and maybe this once off. Least till the August members wake up next year!

Also with the dense rank method used and extending to 50 places the could equate to 70-100 members with the scoring system so tight.

@Lemond that's a lot of work there! I'm happy if they scrap the birthday bonus......but only in December :)

@spyglass....then I'm out of the running! lol Cancelling NYE's celebrations of my birthday bonus forthwith! ;)

@toxicgherkin @spyglass lol. Hmmm yeh bit of work for the modelling and statistics. I've also added in expected payout per person via for each month. Might also add in group the payout according to number of birthdays in a month. Would save me having to sort that to compare.

All data driven flexible to model most things. I possible could modify/add for different ranking systems. Site uses dense rank could also compare to competition rank. With the tight scoring system and how prizes are awarded, I would be little nervous if I was paying out in some scenarios. All I'm saying is OPHRA!

I've been slowly doing the model during my self imposed comping exile. Waiting on Wondercom for an Internet connection . Still wondering after 15 working days for a connection appointment.

Just making sure the probabilities are calculated correctly, I rushed up last months calculations. Also adding some statistics to help analyse what an appropriate birthday bonus, if any would work. Then need to expand all the sheets to take in a larger sample. Lot easier using a small sample until got the model done.

I've got some ideas on a birthday bonus and how might work. Think it could be related to the average number or likely maximum number of birthdays in a month then examine the average top position monthly score and subtract from it the birthday bonus.. Would have to consider also how well it scales with greater numbers.
Eg from limited data set working with atm.

For 50 participants:
Assume likely max birthdays is 7 then 1/7 = 14%
For 30 days the top 2% score ie first position the average score is approx 199, 14% is approx 182.
The difference 17 points. Would have to model it to see the effects for if 1, 2, 3... birthdays in a month and how they compare for expected payout per person. Also comparing against no bonus.

For 50 bonus points
For the one birthday example verses other months the preliminary results showed it over 3 times better off. It went from being one of the worse performers with a totally random system 0 bonus points to clearly the best with 50 bonus points. Note only a small sample of 20 years.

If you think about it, if it's set to high on average most/all of the birthdays end up at the top of the leader board and share the prizes available.

Eg if one birthday first on average most years
2 birthdays every 2nd year etc win/ alternate 1st and 2nd etc etc

Eg For 50 participants
For 0 bonus
Odds roughly 1/number of participants to win 1/50 (1 in 50 months, 4.2 years) . For any prize 3/50 ( once every 17 months). Or odds for winning on your birthday month once every 50 years, once every 17 for any prize. Odds are slightly better due to the increased chance of multiple winners with the tighter points system.

For 50 bonus points:
1 birthday win every 3 out of 4 years and then other most likely 2nd or 3rd. I think under 8% chance to miss out totally.

If got 6 birthdays in a month be 1/6 (1 in 6 years) to win . For any prize 3/6 or once every 2 years on average. Chance to miss out would expect to be low ie probability of 3 members out of 6 with each roughly 75 to 80ish% each to be on top of the leaderboard. Feel free to calculate that see combination probability. So basically if you going to miss out, your in the bottom 3 birthdays anyway. Lol

And if more birthdays in a month! hopefully you get the idea.

So for months with less birthdays then average, those indivuals should win more often. So the winners of the current system would be biased towards those members.

So you first question should be: Is your birthday month better off then the average? Then decide! Lol. Otherwise your better off with a no birthday bonus system.

@toxicgherkin Will have to drum some support for December birthdays to come out of the woodwork! That way you can whack a mole them before they multiply.

Also if touch unlucky what would be the expected worse case scenario for how long it might take to win comparing systems? Are you better off putting all your eggs in one basket once a year? Definitely if only a couple of birthdays and 50 bonus points. Thou if 10 birthdays might be a while between drinks. And that's hoping they don't increase too much over time.

I was thinking of putting up a non binding poll once completed the leaderboard model and statistics.

The problem with plebiscites, self interest and uninformed opinions may overrule the common sense for a fair system. That's where the @admin need show some leadership. Lol

@admin The birthday bonus should be removed until you're confident that it doesn't cause a biased and unfair system. Possible a reasonable bonus amount might only have an insignifant or limited bias.

Reducing the daily points I can understand as increases the importance or viewing competitions, however the birthday bonus wasn't adjusted correspondingly. If you pull one string it can effect things unexpectly.

I'm not saying revert to the old system. It might also had some bias will have to generate the numbers for 50 daily points. Educated guess boost was about 20% which corresponds to roughly to less then 20 points for the 10 daily points. You can calculate that for n participants for 1/10 and 1/50 probabilities for an average month of 30 days etc to get expected values. See PMF and z values I think. I haven't dived into the mathematics as yet. 20 points is probably still on the high side. It's best I don't prompt an arbitrary bonus points until I've put a large set of data in. Overall it involves some heavy maths!

At the moment using only a small sample of 20 years on the updated monthly modelling. Intend to expand that 10 times the amount. Shouldn't take long unless the PC complains.

Before making any decisions best to model or get the maths brains out. Hints how many participants on average do all the guessing game, and birthday distribution, PMF and expected values for an average month, combination probability and a dart board.

I don't claim to understand it all - my statistical days are well and truly behind me - though I hope @admin and @zedmin are perusing Forum content. It would be nice to hear from the site's admin team every now and again.

How about running a monthly 'Caption This..' competition. Introduce Weekly Riddles, Enigmas, Puzzles and such, just to engage users more. The Forum has dried up a tad in terms of numbers of respondents. Let's open the doors and invite everyone back to have fun, contribute, and lift the site's social profile. Thoughts?

@toxicgherkin Bit rusty myself, why took the 'easier' path of doing a spreadsheet to model it. Just the last couple of weeks with no birthdays of regular members compared to last month a light bulb moment. As expected the sample data confirm it's biased greatly. My feeling even if a bonus works probably will need tweaking occasionally, if get substantial increase of core members doing the leaderboard competition everyday or influx of birthdays.

You would think with such an advantage members be coming out of the woodwork for their one shot a year. Maybe they missed the big advertising banner announcing the changes. Only noticed one 'new' member as a result of the changes and they have since done a runner. So from a 'promotional' point of view it's a failure so far! More likely to kill off the site and turn members away. It's kinda the glue that keeps members coming back regularly.

The forum has dried up. The capation this competition used to have bit of a regular following on Facebook. That's a good idea or something similar. Maybe a photo comp. Creative comps are a good change of pace. Also another forum run competition. Or find the hidden bugs in the site lol.

Last we heard from the @admin they were exterminating bugs by unleashing some cane toads! New month approaching hope they got the exterminators on standby.

@Lemond I agree, this forum used to be fun

@Anna2077 @toxicgherkin @admin
It might reflect a drop off in members actively using the site.

The leaderboard, guessing game and forum differentiate it from other comping sites. The leaderboard is glue that encourages members to actively using the site daily. The guessing game while may attract members daily , doesn't necessarily encourage active use the site. Thou you think they would explore a bit. Why question some winners of the guessing game occassionly, especially if are new members. Least question for the promoter's side why the lure occassional fails. Guess more about put out the lure and see how many you can catch. Bound to be a few that get away.

The website glues together the other social media sites they use. Like all comps it's all about the promoter! How to attract members and keep them interested. Other exclusive site comps are a good idea as well, thou as not daily keeps them on their toes only once in while. Be only short lived and would need regular commitment for them.

Bound to be some effect from having the leaderboard becoming primarily a "birthday" competition. As it's set disapportionly too high, apart from possibly discouraging members for most of the year, it's an biased and unfair system. Ie the the number birthdays each month unlikely/improbable/impossible (unless number the of *'committed/active' members is divisable by 12) to be evenly distributed.

*regularly do all requirements daily to have a genuine chance. Due to the high vale of points for the guessing game once miss a day realistically out of the running. (Unless birthday month and not many other birthdays)

Done some reading, looks like the modelling done so far is leading towards a Monte Carlo simulation. That might be a good idea to start there, instead of dealing with the complex maths involved. Also there are other similar methods that revolve around the Monte Carlo Simulation technique.

I will have to read up on it especially what statistics to generate. Guessing coefficient of variation for a normal distribution for wins or expected payout.
Aim would be find the most appropriate birthday bonus or other what other the variables can alter appropriately. Can play with random daily points, number and value of prizes, points for competitions viewed etc. They are all things "play" with. Pull on stick and see how it effects the outcomes, before creating a system the falls in a heap!

Could to like higher daily points, increase points for the competitions viewed, decrease points for the guessing game etc as an example. It's a fine balance depending on what your aims are. Guessing encourage to view the competitions posted. Lol. For appropriate values you need careful selection and testing.

Ps too high of a birthday bonus falls in a heap!

What is everyone's suggestion for birthday points? Remove them?

What's the problem with birthday bonus? If people change birthday date to get extra points the system would pick it up.

Without the birthday bonus some will never get to the top 3.

@Anna2077 It's a biased system! Ie it's favourable to the groups of members that have on average, less birthdays in thier month, compared to those with more. In one word UNJUST.

The baised system is more apparent since changing from 50 random daily points to 10 and leaving the birthday bonus as 50 points. Assuming the previous system of 50 daily points had an insignifant bias, if the birthday bonus was reduced to reflect the changes it should produce similar outcomes. It not as simple as dividing by 5. You would need to understand the distribution of expected monthly scores and their variation for 50 daily points and 10 daily. I'm not stating a 'reasonable' birthday bonus value does/doesn't exists just other variables eg the random daily points, comps viewed etc start having more effect on outcome. The only guaranteed solution is 0 birthday bonus points for no bias. 50 points it' becomes obvious.

Possible an appropriate range of birthday bonus might result in an insignificant bias according the a random daily points system. It's a complex mathematical problem. You need to consider all the variables like the expected number of ; participants, variation of birthdays in a month, random daily points value.

Statistically untrue, eventually even with a baised system it may happen, just happens less often and may take longer then average to be in the top 3! Currently the chances are once a year plus the slight chance the number of birthdays in a month are less then about 4. 0 birthdays in a month everyone has equal chance, which is the same as having a 0 birthday bonus for this month that month.

Many variables can change for example, decrease the points for the daily guessing game. That way members arent penalised as much and loose interest. Reducing the daily points to 10 in my opinion is a good idea as makes viewing competitions more important.

To demonstrate how biased will put up a sample of expected outcomes grouped according to the number of birthdays in a month.

@admin maybe at the end of this year..? I don't want to be (further) disadvantaged. My birthday's NYE (31/12)! Lol Remove it from 1 January 2017..?

@toxicgherkin @Lemond Have either of you gentleman entered featured comps and are they safe to enter?

@toxicgherkin lol Jan 1st bound to be heaps of 'birthdays' that day for the members that don't want to enter in thier real date. I find that day an easy one to remember if I don't trust a site for personal details.

Just having a look through 1 example of a birthday distribution and the effect of birthday bonus. Possible can have a 'reasonable' bonus. Technically should to redo that simulation numerous times before making any assumptions. The bias is fairly clear the higher the birthday bonus is. 50 points isn't much difference from guaranteing with say 300 points with 10 daily random points. The bias is uneven birthday distributions. More importantly the 50 point birthday bonus is weighted too heavily towards the current leader board outcome. That ballon needs some serious deflating to reduce its bais to reasonable amount.

I haven't automated running numerous simulations for different birthday distributions and birthday bonus. I've pushed using spreadsheet to its outer limits. It's an impressive prototype for a database implementation. PC Starts cracking a wobbly when attempting more then 100 years of random data at once. Then you need to automate that to generate for various random birthday distributions to fiind recommend birthday bonus.

It's most likely only valid until the excepted maximum number of birthdays in a month, for rolling 12 month period increases. So occassional would need minor adjustment unless a sudden increase of active members.

Looks roughly 40-70 regular members do all daily requirements so maximum be around 11 for a month. Surprised a few birthdays haven't shown up at the top of the leader board given the big advantage. Only ones I saw early in the month had missed at least a day.

Ok now for @ admin for an official reply regarding the birthdays bonus will do a new post. If want to 'ask' the forum an important questition best not to hide in down in existing post.
Done one report of expected payout. Will post that up today. Hope you understand why it's currently biased.

@Anna2077 Hi, there. Yes, I've entered featured comps. I made the mistake of using my personal email account. I wished someone had advised me to setup a throwaway email address just for comping, in general. My personal email is bombarded with hundreds of junk email offers daily . It's easy going on a deleting binge to inadvertently delete something of importance. Yes, I've most certainly done that before, and on more than one occasion. Some of the more spam-type emails I'm hesitant to click on the 'Unsubscribre' link, just in case it redirects to something nasty, or attempts to infiltrate the laptop's securities. Easier for me just to delete. I do report a lot of spam to ACMA but you just quickly receive a 'reply acknowledged' from them. Great! Another email to delete! Grr! Lol. When it's all said and done, no, I don't recall having won in a featured comp on this website or on random comp entries.

@Anna2077 I would start with ones where you initiate contact verses the ones emailed claiming to be competitions mostly likely SPAM, unless you have a subscription for a site. I wish I kept a list of sites I've subscribe to for competitions. As I haven't touched my emails for 2 months, I bound to indentify those spam to permantly bin. I just hope haven't missed any wins from before mid June.

I think the ones that start asking long survey's for things you're not interested would be high on the list to be wary of receiving unwanted emails and calls. Best safety if afraid of financial/identity fraud is to limit what correct personal details given out, used separate emails for personal, business and comping.

Layer bank accounts or even use multiple banks so harder to hit all at once. What I've done. Never know when one bank systems wants to chuck a wobbly. Of course different pins for each account and bank. God just what we all love another PIN to remember. The joys of using a bank account you don't use regularily. Like the guessing game, oh so close but no cigar.

Limit amounts kept in accounts if its a debit/credit card and only leave just enough as required. Saves being stung by even "reputable" companies (cough TPG or any ISP) trying to double dip for a bill.

Don't use the phone to visit unknow sites. Maybe use different device for comping and business. Good idea there. For financial things I might reboot into a clean OS which I use as a backup. Hmmm maybe create another OS boot, one, for personal/comping, financial and also backup. At least the IPAD Pro I won helps when the PC overheats and those safeguards are worthless. lol

@toxicgherkin Hear Hear!!! Same I wished I used another email for comping.

Any volunteers to clean up my personal/junk email account. To be nice you can do it for the last two months hehe. Think its grown from 9,000 what I had previously in mid June to around 15,000 give or take a few.

@Anna2077 I think it would be irresponsible to list any sites as safe. Most companies wouldn't have the resources to guarantee any personal details are safe. Even the Australian government has had issues keeping data safe. USA milarity secrets for planes going to China, Wikileaks. The list goes on and on with security breaches it's an endless battle. From Samsung, Sony been lots of cases of stolen user and password lists, compromised credit cards etc etc.

Even for the Census data, if identifier keys are separate from the personal data and then put one down a mine shaft with no connection, you might think it was secure. Well ask IRAN and their issue with nuclear centrifuges. They were on an independant network system, cut off from everything else. The weakest link was not the technology safeguards but people. I.e. employees home machines were targetted and some stupid fool used a USB key brought in from home on the work machines, for that case. Well the malware accidently brought in was designed to destroy important hardware without raising the alarms. Kinda of like the philsing scams of old, with dailup. One neighbour ended up with an $1,000 phone bill. The malware would silence the modem speakers and then proceeded to dailup an overseas number.

EG. for call centres if tricked or careless could accidently give out personal information etc. Cases of Indian call centre empolyess selling off personal data etc.

Best safeguard, assume all are potientially unsafe. What can you do? Hmm .. least make it hard as possible, and put up enough hurdles, so they move on and go after the easier targets first. The exception to that if you got something of "value" enough to attract hardcore hackers. Like a few billion sitting around, like the Federal Bank of Bangladesh had earlier in the year.

@toxicgherkin thank you! Wasn't sure if they are safe to enter.

I used a social media email address for comping and now I get at least 100 spams a day. Not unsubscribing & just deleting. As unsubscribing will bring 100000 more. Learned the hard way in the days of hotmail :-)

Went on a deleting binge and deleted an invite.. apparently had to RSVP. Sadly missed the event.

(did my select the page and delete) lol .. took only few minutes.

@Lemond thank you! Most ask too many questions I have no desire to answer.

1. Birthday
2. Location
3. Where do I bank

and few others cannot think of right now.

Some really nice wins, congratulations.

That's awesome, enjoy :)

That cat tower looks like it will be hours of fun for the cat and your Dad. Congrats!

Thank you all :) Happy Comping

That's a good one ... congrats